Investment Rules:The Do's And Donts – Part 2 of 2 !!!

Guys, here are the last 5 Dos and Donts of Smart Investing !!

# 6 If there is still adequate liquidity for the market..Don’t fight the tape..When liquidity looks scarce which is usually near market tops, do fight the tape..Waiting for a possible 10% more gain isn’t worth a possible pullback of 30 or more per cent..

# 7 Dont over analyze stocks..When that happens you are usually going into so much obscureness of variables,the market wouldn’t pick it up anyway to give it another direction..Usually only 4-5 variables at the most will impact a stock and most of them are easily identified in the stock with just a little study..

# 8 Do very little momentum trading if you are an individual small investor….Here’s why..The big hedge funds will bid prices up relatively fast and sell off fast making your bids and sells pushed much higher and many times not receiving your orders and having to place them much higher on the bids and lower on the sells..Sometimes it becomes a crowded trade where the bulls and bears come to a head and it can go into any direction fast without much certainty..This can cause great losses..Especially when you couldnt get your bids and sells where you wanted it to be..Also there is a higher risk of a investment not being as safe as undiscovered gems..Remember that..

# 9 Have an exit strategy on your stocks…I had about a 4th investment on a stock in the fall last year..The stock already spiralled down where I bought it at 37 a share..I knew in an owners earnings with just 9% growth at its core value without growth spurts they achieve on acquisition, the stock was worth 49..I double down at 23 in March and sold eventually at 49..Don’t be a price taker if a stock has great fundamentals and is undervalued…I refused to accept 20 a share was going to last and it didn’t..

# 10 Don’t let nervousness engulf you when picking stocks..I have many times not added positions to existing stocks during market negativity and fear and when I have done this more often than not, my stocks surge more without adding to it..

Remember,although you should have a bucket of small cap stocks in my opinion as your core investments, some larger caps can be added to the core especially one with juicy year in and year out rising dividend stocks bought after great market rises ..

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Please do your own investment research before you make an investment purchase..See our disclaimer..

Investment Rules:The Do's And Donts – Part 1 of a two Part 2 Series !!

Heres to good investing and trading !!! Enjoy this Article produced by Editor in Chief and Co- Founder of this Blog, Mike Marsh !!

#1 Stocks should be approached more longer term..The best advise is to make sure the company is well-researched..Most stocks are not cheap..The market wont let it get too cheap..When you have a long horizon to a great gain..My advise is to not sell on a 50% rise to 70% rise to its intrinsic value..The best thing is to actually hold to what you think its worth..Too many people get out of a stock due to boredom or another stock that they feel has more upside potential..The one problem with this is becomes habit to not hold for longer terms..And may lead to mistakes since many stocks are not canvassed long enough for study..Best to buy and hold to a fair value..Taking profits after a great rise short term is not so bad..But only after several conviction of a strong uptrend has been reached–30% above 50 dma for example..

#2 Don’t be fanciful about bottom picking or top picking..The odds aren’t in your favor and by doing so you may miss the forest reading of a great many points to the upside of a stock that will in time obscure the 10 cent to 60 cent range of an attempted bottom pick..The biggest mistakes investors make..

# 3 Most of your stock picks should have strong revenue growth..It’s easy for a while to help the bottom line be more attractive by short term manipulation or just management decisions..But due to demand cycles like cutting work force may end up just increasing overtime in top peak seasons of the demand cycle of a company’s goods or services..Look for strong 40% growth or higher on revenues..Some companies you cant even find out where their earnings growth comes from..Without revenue,you cant expect a stock to surge ahead for long..

# 4 Over trading..You are nervous because you have too much of a position of a stock..Who knows what the nervousness is coming from..You then dont study a stock to see how its downtrending and pick a bad point in a pullback..Then because the bottom perfect picking dominates your psyche..Yor quickly sell the buy point you put in that day on the same day getting out of it..Simply because the pick was not close to being right..Had I done this yesterday to a stock I didnt have a good added position to a pullback, I would be squirming in despair..The 23 stock is up 3.57 a share..Again,the goal of an investor is to make money not picking exact bottoms or tops..

# 5 High growth stocks will be full of dilution-– selling after such is a huge mistake and selling during is a mistake too..Just take it on the chin if its one of those rare breeds where expansion looks good..This I can say for many China Agriculture stocks..Very few stocks with a lot of acquisition is healthy for stocks..Those I can say so is good for the gander..

Please do your own investment research before you make an investment purchase..See our disclaimer..

Stock Picking: Try Mr Band's Stock Picks For Fat Returns

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We will in a heart beat point out analysts we feel are very noteworthy..One such analyst is Richard E. Band..To show how stellar his returns for investors is that his recommendations since 1984 have brought 1100% returns…He focuses on stocks such as we do here at Madstockpicks.com ..Small -to Mid-Cap Stocks..His stocks on a volatility level measures in the low range..I promise we dont or wont make a dime off any newsletters he has by marketing them..We just appreciate any great analysts out there and he has newsletters at InvestorPlace dot com via online or mailed to subscribers….His frequency of trading is a few stocks each month..One would have a 6 month Money Back Guarantee..It would be prorated thereafter on a $99.99 1 year subscription for first time subscribers..But let me highlight a few stocks of his recent recommendations…

History will show this monster rise in the stock market is almost near the flattening out process..When such an occurrence happens, where do you turn to?..Healthy low P/E stocks with nice juicy dividends that have had consistent returns for several years on earnings…Here are some of Mr. Band’s recent recommendations:

Dividend Stock # 1 -FPL Group (FPL)
Its based in Florida and its the nation’s greatest producer of green electricity ..The electricity is based on wind and solar generating uinits..It has a healthy 3.4% dividend that Mr Band thinks will be increased within 6 months..Also it has one of the best returns in the utility field as far as earnings..Its up 11% annually for the past 5 years..

Dividend Stock # 2- Aqua America (WTR)
First, let me say as Mr. Band points out,Aqua America has a dividend sustenance of 19 increases in the past 18 years…The company has a strong balance sheet and is America’s strongest water utility and one of the most safest..Its is a very essential product,life essential as a matter of fact..Its customer base is diversified along wide-spread geographical lines..It covers 3 million people along 13 states…Management is shareholder-friendly..WE like as Mr Band does great franchise stocks with low debt and a great balance sheet.. WTR makes the grade..

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Dividend Stock # 3 Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG)
Agreat value stock for the moment as many of these stocks have been ignored the past few months in this bullish cycle..The New Jersey-based energy services utility company has a single digit P/E and a 4.3% dividend yield..They are cruising for a record 2009 operating performance and a projected good one next year but at a smaller rate than this year..The most profitable part of their business is their wholesale generating business that fluctuates with economy cycles..Never the less,I have seen such utilities companies getting the takeover sweep by other larger ones..As a matter of policy,Mr Band considers any utility company that trades at 7.5 times cash flow a considered possible takeover target..The company is at the desired metrics already..Should a asset-acquiring company takeover PEG,one can pocket as much as 25-30% gains in 1 day should that happen…

Both Rob and Mike own no shares of the above stocks as of this writing but may like to in the future..We also havent made any profits endorsing Richard E. Band’s newsletters or any subscription services at InvestorPlace dot com directly nor will not profit directly from any subscription services in the future from Richard E. Band’s subscription services or from InvestorPlace dot com..We simply have an admiration for such an analyst…Please do your own independent research before you make an investment purchase..See our disclaimer.

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Stock Picking:Think Inside The Box–Gridiron Equals Wings (BWLD)

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Think outside the box…Goal setting…We have heard this talk all the time..I heard the first one on a radio station as being an overused term…How about thinking inside the box for once..I would like to hear that expression for once..And in that box on Saturdays during the fall season is a college or pro football game illuminating on the screen (or in the box)..What comes along with that–an infusion of a vast group of friends getting ready to see the game with beer,wine coolers and yes,wings..As an investor if you think football is a great market and has its accessories like wings–then why not buy BWLDBuffalo Wild Wings..

BWLD reported 2nd quarter earnings higher by expectations by 5 cents at 39 cents a share..It has longer horizons by announcing on June 12,2009 that BWLD plans expansions into Mexico and Canada and other countries within the next 3 years..You got to see if it has pretty much escaped this recession or not..The answer is it has averaged 19% in revenues the past 4 years..It has even launched a Fantasy Football All-Star Blogger League–the company knows their fanatic tendencies packing their restaurants with their laptops ready to challenge online football..IBD early last month has incited investors that the stock is forming a nice cup and handle formation…It fell almost 70% last year during the tortuous tsunami in November 2008 and recaptured nearly all its losses by April 2009..The high of April 28 was furthered with a 31% pullback…The selling completely dried up when the stock hit its 40 week moving average finding support there..The cup’s right side handle started to form..What you want to see in a consolidation is a series of high volume weeks..It did this 3 times.. This is a good sign a base is forming…We have seen an upgrade around 37 and the stock is at 40…

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Now we have one undeniable fact..Check your local BWLD out in the next few Saturdays,Sundays and even Thursdays..Volume there will pick up for the casual diners.. But what I dont call this influx crowd as really casual diners at all, but raw-hide football fanatics..” Joe, you off Saturday..Well,round up the troops for the game..I got the beer covered,everyone pitch in when they get here..Dont eat before the game..We are ordering Wings..” This is a normal scene this time of year..When BWLD reports their next 2 quarters and you see earnings –dont think these group of people wont enhance those earnings..Its usually the # 1 choice of food (wings) eaten when watching football at home or restaurants…There are cheaper evaluations with the likes of MCD’s and Darden Restaurants..However at 26.52 trailing P/E, BWLD’s forward P/E at 19.3 has a PEG at .80 –well below the S&P average of 1.7…DRI has had same store comps for the year of its 3 primary concepts dropped 1.4%..But this negative figure was offset by 38 new Olive Gardens,10 Red Lobsters and 16 Longhorns..This enabled sales to grow 9%..DRI is still not a bad investment either since its trading at a forward P/E of 12..Same stores comps this year for casual dining is negative 5.6%..BWLD’S traditional wings in the last quarter as a percentage of total sales went from 22% to 20%..But their higher margins of boneless wings increased from 16% of total sales in the prior year to 19% this year…DRI quarterly revenue YOY in Q2 was 8.2% while BWLD is still gangbuster going at 32.4%..Think about that difference and projection of 40 % more BWLD’S stores by 2013 as to the higher P/E..DRI can still do a better job at controlling costs since its diverse and can increase prices of their higher demand food products and level down inventory of its lesser ones..Its diversity helps in the way that an investor shouldnt get bogged down with a casual dining and fast food stock like DRI that suddenly becomes unfavorable to the patrons as many people flock to ‘the next best thing’..But BWLD has a growing base and a ‘football face’ to it still..About 600 stores and expects 1,000 by 2013–still a growing company…Cost of labor should be lower than last year in Q3 unless natural gas prices rise substantially…Q2 showed restaurant operating expenses reduced 50 basis points at 15.3% to revenue sales due to lower natural gas expenses..Couple this with people enjoying wings 2-3 days a week through early December should boost BWLD sales..

Jesup and Lamont has a buy rating with target price of 49.. One year estimate of EPS for 2009 is 1.70..This could be an easy 19% gain for investors after the next 2 quarters..Something to think about during a slight nervous market for bulls and bears…

Neither Mike Marsh nor his brother Rob Marsh currently own shares of BWLD,MCD and DRI as of this writing ..Please do your own independent research before you make an investment purchase..See our disclaimer.

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Stock Pickers: Are You A Tree Reader Or A Forest Reader?

By Mike Marsh

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Many times we look into that quick profit..That quick trade.. At least since many message board data centers on how a stock will trade in the short term confirms this behavior…We get caught on looking too close at the tree many times when if one will take their eye off those first few trees that loom in front of their eyes, there’s a huge forest in size on many equities….Look at RINO, CAGC.OB & CPQQ.OB for example-very small cap China Stocks…..Let’s start with RINO,,,With a market cap of 338 million and revenue of 100 million during the 2nd half of 2009, the stock at 13.50 is trading at a P/E of 7.10…The conservative estimate of EPS at 97 cents for the 2nd half of 2009, the 89 cents for the first 6 months of 2009 is only part of the forest to size up…These estimates include outsourcing to get installation of their waste treatment products that the government has already announced they are backing as the # 1 leader in the Steel sector desulpher equipment and a new capacity coming in 2010 as well…Plus oil sludge product revenue’s will come in later this year..This is a real under promise and over deliver picture in my opinion the company is forecasting…

The $1.87 in net income confirming valuations at 13.50 a share (its current price) makes a conservative trailing P/E of 7.1..But reading the forest –its highly probable with added products like the oil sludge products–2010 looks like 4 to 5 times P/E at this current price and current market cap of 338 million..There is a potential estimate based on many variable measures that I have heard from an institutional company but its only a projection –so dont count on it as solid ..That institutional investment company thinks that this company at 338 million market cap could grow one day to a 15 (US) billion dollar company ..This is not 100% confirmed by my sources conclusively yet as we are still in process of getting in touch with RINO’s new CFO Jenny Liu ourselves on such a lofty projection. …But a well-renowned institutional company who has had many interviews with the company’s directors and been in the plant thinks its a possibility ..I will say this myself–most investor’s get it wrong in our opinion where they think RINO’S revenue from desulferization systems and accessories will dry up next year since they make up to 75% in current revenues..This is a very wrong perception and couldnt be further from the truth..RINO has massive repeat revenue sources surrounding their desulferization business…The other important reading of a giant forest is RINO’s sludge treatment equipment slated for commercial use in the next couple of months that will make revenues massive to its already giant revenues…An average P/E of 15 and the stock could be traded as double-higher,a conservative figure of 27.90 can be ascertained..When outsourcing stops and the oil sludge begins,then a higher price PPS than 27.90 can be expected as institutions are chop-licking on this..This stock will trade up for the future and not on that mistep 2nd quarter due to outsourcing that caused cost of capital to rise that quarter…RINO in our opinion is the real deal…

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Next,we focus on CAGC.OB..China Agritech..It is trading as of this writing after hours on 8/27/09 at 2.89 a share..They have already a 150,000 metric ton fertilizer capacity of organic fertilizer that increased revenues by 56.9% in the 2nd quarter over the 2008 2nd quarter almost all of it due to the new production facilities at Anhui province in eastern China and Harbin in northern China that started operations in the 2nd quarter of 2009….The third production facility should be completed by the end of 2009…The Chinese government projected that raw material prices are gradually declining…This should bring in higher profits on its anticipated revenues in the future..They have no long term debt and 66.5 million in net working capital and accounts receivables at 43.7 million and cash is 16.5 million..The company has announced they are staying on top of operating cash flows..The first 6 months of this year generated over 8 million in positive operating cash flow as opposed to a negative figure in the first 6 months of 2008..They have implemented a penalty policy to their sales staff with collection responsibility,contraction of new accounts receivables to 6 months instead of 12 months,more strict credit check passing criteria as well…They established these new collection policies in the first quarter & started implementing them in the 2nd quarter..They expect to produce good results in the 4th quarter and 2010 from account receivables management program..Their bad debt decreased by .5% in the 2nd quarter when they just implemented these new policies..They can focus on the extending their operating cash flows to the now established good paying customers…They plan to come out with more higher margin products in the future to balance the mix of low margin organic fertilizer…The company is projecting 20,000 metric tons of organic fertilizers in the 3rd quarter of 2009..They have full confidence of exceeded net revenue for the year of approximately 60 million & net revenue attributable to common shareholders of 9.5 million will be exceeded…Here’s how I look at it–150,000 metric tons with government backing in a land that is scarce for farming over population demands cause a great rise in share price if this company manages receivables and delivers more higher margin products which they have indicated on doing both..Expect a PPS rise that should comfort existing and near future shareholders future income appreciation from the stock in my opinion & maybe within 6 months,a delivery to AMEX listing…

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Last a power company in China….CPQQ.OB..China Power Equipment Inc..This company fits right on in with the government’s demand for clean energy and saving of energy..They have a patented and proprietary technology of producing energy saving transformers and transformers cores..They have 55 different models of transformers in 4 product series in China..This centers around transferring an electrical energy from one circuit to another by use of inductively coupled inductors or the transformers coils..Net revenues for the first 6 months in 2009 rose 88% over the 6 months of the first 6 months of 2008..Net income nearly doubled from .06 a share to .11 cents a share..Net income for the 2nd quarter was 1.3 million, .09 cents as compared to 310,746 or .02 per share for 2nd quarter in 2008..The company expects to grow on the strong foundation of government agencies and regional utilities as they continue to expand China’s power grid infrastructure…I have high expectation for massive returns on this company in my opinion…

So after looking at such companies..I ask you this: Are you a tree reader or a forest reader?..Trying to guess Wall Street’s psychology of the short term trading swings only to possibly get tripped up in that guesswork and constantly looking at the streamer impeding other possibilities of income? Or are you a forest reader?..Seeing that a more predictable future of a possible great forest that sometimes is forgotten by the traders that keep watching too close at the trees at the edge of the forest instead of seeing data that can tell you possibly this is a great forest that is undervalued…Go ahead, try to look at the trading activity like the direction of ants migrating up and down and sideways on one or two trees..Then realize sometimes you watched the trees too closely forgetting about the whole forest…

Both Mike Marsh and his brother Rob Marsh currently own shares of CAGC.OB as of this writing.. Mike also cur
rently owns shares of CPQQ.OB and RINO as well……Please do your own independent research before you make an investment purchase..See our disclaimer.

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Stock Pickers: Dont Overanalyze Things………

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By Mike Marsh

Based on Warren Buffet, one should not over analyze things. In his experience of observing stocks and in his own investment experiences,usually 3-4 variables at the max count and that is about it. Everything else is Wall Street noise per Marty Whitman.If the figures look right and the company’s management knows how to run the company for the benefit of its shareholders, a 60 page report on the company is not needed..

You are not rewarded like a gymnast performing a difficult level of a series of flips..One’s right analysis that was dependant mostly on one single key factor of a stock would be the same payoff as a stock that was appropriately and correctly analyzed relying on many variables..Getting bogged down over analyzing stocks in his experience can actually force you into making mistakes…

You are not going to get called on strikes if you dont execute a buy on a stock..Money managers though have that audience or fans behind them constantly telling them to swing..You as an investor should understand you dont get called out on strikes and dont have to swing at everything your way..You wont get called on strikes so wait for your pitch.

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Stock Picking- What the Hell is ' Cyclibles" ?

By Mike Marsh
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Here’s what I mean per Peter Lynch about cyclibles..You see where a company produces still good growth in an earnings report but haver lower margins YOY–Wall Street will bring estimates down and you wait till the stock trades down..Wall Street will establish margins down over last year and lower earnings estimates in the future..Then you cherry pick the stock knowing commodity prices being on the low-end will rise–so you buy..

He stated if its a good fundamental stock and a low P/E stock (low P/E low and low top end PE range)..You would buy at its top end P/E range…Buy after depressed prices after seeing margins are decreasing (it was due to seasonally low pork prices)..Then you buy the stock on a downtrend of price..Then since estimates are reduced by Wall Street hold through a few earnings as Pork prices invariably rise and the company will then hopefully smash earnings as pork prices rise..Lynch states many buyers of cyclibles buy when margins have expanded greatly–stated those investors were late in the game on historically higher commodity prices (hence,in this case,pork)..Then the investor gets burned by doing what is usually normal buying at the low P/E range than the higher one…stock tips

Getting started with Online Trading..What You Need to Know

By David C Wilson

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Online stock market investing has skyrocketed over the last few decades. No longer are the days when you need to call your broker and hold to make your trades. Technology has benefited us in such a way that the simple investment of a computer enables us to take full control over our finances and ultimately our life. There are a large amount of online brokerage platforms for you to choose from and the choice is yours. No one is more concerned or interested as you when it comes to taking care of yourself and your loved ones.

There are various aspects of investing and it will be beneficial for you to consider as many as possible before you make your final decision on your investment strategy. We will briefly examine three of them here. Keep in mind that you will want to make sure that your expectations are reasonable about the market and how you are able to perform in the market.

One very important aspect of trading that is often overlooked is the emotional aspect. The ups and down of the market can have you on an emotional rollercoaster. This can cause even the most experienced investor to take huge losses. In my experience it has benefited me to keep a trading journal of how I felt when I bought or sold a security. Was I nervous? Confident? were there other factors in my life that caused me to make a knee jerk reaction? After following the market and reviewing your journal you are likely to find that you made poor decisions when you felt unstable.

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The technical aspect of trading is very popular and involves the study of charts, trends, formula and statistics to decide which securities to choose. This method is also used to determine when to enter and exit a position.

The fundamental aspect of trading is implemented when the investor’s research primarily include the history and the strength of the security. Fundamentalists consider, among other things, the strength of the balance sheet, income statements and the company’s earnings potential.

It will benefit the individual investor to combine these methods and carefully consider each transaction. For example, an online investor may want to choose a stock based on fundamentals and decide when to enter and exit securities based on the technicals. Other online investors use technical to choose industries and narrow their lists of stocks and finalize the decision with the fundamentals. And let’s not forget about emotions. Do not enter and exit out of anxiety. Have a clear plan when you enter and exit so as not to wipe out your investment base. The most important thing to remember is that you are patient and stick with your strategy and trust yourself. There is no exact science to the organized chaos of trading. Knowledge is a key contributor. Know the technicals, know the fundamentals, recognize the trends and know yourself.

If you’re looking to buy stocks online, you’re reading the right article. If you want to learn more, why not find out more about investing with index funds and other great investing tips.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=David_C_Wilson

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Recession has Ended but Pain hasn't……Be careful with Your Stock Picking

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By Bill Flekenstein
MSN Money Central

Recently I have been struck by the number of talking heads declaring that the housing market or economy has bottomed, along with their expectation of what comes next — i.e., the recent Newsweek Magazine cover: “The Recession Is Over. Good luck surviving the recovery.”

To state the obvious, the reason there’s always such an intense focus on the “bottom” is because of the implication of what comes next: better times.

I think that in most people’s minds, it is assumed that after something bottoms out, the recovery will be rather strong, if not V-shaped. Not necessarily.

Throw out the rule book for this recovery
The economy stopped getting worse sometime during the first quarter. It has benefited from massive amounts of money printing, inventory restocking and better business prospects in Asia. But I think the most important point for folks to understand is that it’s not business as usual.

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The United States is going through something unprecedented: The collapsed credit/real estate bubble (which followed the collapse of a stock bubble), and the attendant economic consequences (not the least of which has been the distinct inability to create jobs on the heels of a brutal bloodletting), have prompted a massive outpouring of quantitative easing.

Of course, further complicating the handicapping of future economic activity is that the once-radical view that unemployment is intractable has now become mainstream, almost ensuring some unforeseen wrinkle.

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More from MSN Money
Do Intel’s numbers spell recovery?
Why this recession feels so bad
The difficulties of creating jobs
Why you won’t like the recovery
What’s next: Inflation or deflation?

None of this was surprising. Given what occurred in the credit bubble, many of us expected just such a horrendous economic period. But that has been fought with (also predictable) money printing on the part of the Fed and other central banks, which is what’s called quantitative easing.

So what rages today is the battle between two epic forces: the credit collapse and money printing. The battle has many ramifications. For the financial markets, the quantitative easing and a few less-bad-than-expected economic developments have helped produce the rallies just described. But that does not necessarily mean that a much better economy and job creation lie dead-ahead.

And, after all, we haven’t even begun to deal with the implications of the funding crisis I’ve discussed more than once.

Thus, I would urge folks to be slower to leap to conclusions and more open-minded about the potential economic and financial road map, keeping in mind the forces at work in the background. Their ramifications will be with us for quite some time.

If I had to give one side of the battle the upper hand, I’d give it to money printing, as I have with my investments.

An SEC (belatedly) full of fire and brimstone
Regular readers know that selling stocks short has been part of my investment strategy. Which brings me to the “new” Securities and Exchange Commission rules.

Essentially, these are the rules it introduced last fall aimed at continuing a crackdown on naked short selling. (Until then, the SEC had never bothered to enforce the rules regarding this illegal practice. Sound familiar?)

To which I say: better late than never.

Video on MSN Money
Get ready for the (slow) recovery

There are signs the recession may end in coming months, but the U.S. economy’s recovery is likely to be so painfully slow that many won’t feel the difference. David Wessel reports.

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However, I would like to voice my objection to the innuendo that somehow short-sellers drive prices lower. Lower share prices are a function of the business, the economy, bad luck and/or mismanagement — not short-sellers. What short-sellers often do is to warn of impending problems. How many in government, corporate America or the media at large do that? It’s time to place blame where it’s due, not where it’s convenient.

Continued: ‘I do,’ says Yahoo

‘I do,’ says Yahoo
Finally, in the “recovering short-seller” department (for folks who don’t know, I closed my 13-year-old short-only hedge fund in March):

A few weeks ago, I disclosed the expansion of my long position in Microsoft (MSFT, news, msgs) — see my column from July 20, as well as the one from March 16 — because the company offered too much promise versus its valuation to keep my stake at its modest level. (Microsoft publishes MSN Money.)

Last Wednesday, indeed, suggested the potential of more good things to come, as it appears that Microsoft finally managed to do a deal with Yahoo (YHOO, news, msgs) without dramatically overpaying.

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How well this will turn out down the road remains to be seen. But it’s a far cry better than the proposed $40 billion takeover of the entire beast that is Yahoo. (Lord knows what Steve Ballmer was thinking when he proposed that deal; shareholders can just be thankful that it never happened.)

In any case, Mr. Market may have cast a small vote of confidence last Wednesday, when Microsoft finished slightly positive on a down day.

At the time of publication, Bill Fleckenstein owned shares of the following company mentioned in this column: Microsoft.

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7 dividend stocks you can count on………..

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By Kiplinger’s Personal Finance Magazine

After many dark months, investors’ appetite for risk is back, prompting a buying binge that is driving up the value of some pretty speculative stocks and asset classes.

You can play the momentum game, hoping to enter and exit a hot stock at just the right juncture. Or you can ignore the siren song of quick but highly uncertain gains and instead invest for the long term, using the tried-and-true technique of identifying companies that regularly raise their dividends.

History is on the side of the dividend strategy. Howard Silverblatt, of Standard & Poor’s, calculates that from 1926 through March 2009, reinvested dividends accounted for 44% of the 9.5% annualized return of the S&P 500-stock index ($INX). From 1972 through April 2009, dividend growers returned 8.7% annualized, according to Ned Davis Research, compared with 6.2% for the S&P 500 and just 0.7% for stocks that paid no dividends.

Why has a dividend-growth strategy stood the test of time? First, to commit to boosting its payout, a company must be financially strong and confident that its business plan will generate a stream of profit and cash flow. A growing payout, says Judy Saryan, the manager of Eaton Vance Dividend Builder fund (EVTMX), is the “best, most tangible signal that a company’s board of directors and management have confidence in future cash flows.”

Saryan notes some subtle effects of managers’ commitment to boost the