By Mike Marsh

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Many times we look into that quick profit..That quick trade.. At least since many message board data centers on how a stock will trade in the short term confirms this behavior…We get caught on looking too close at the tree many times when if one will take their eye off those first few trees that loom in front of their eyes, there’s a huge forest in size on many equities….Look at RINO, CAGC.OB & CPQQ.OB for example-very small cap China Stocks…..Let’s start with RINO,,,With a market cap of 338 million and revenue of 100 million during the 2nd half of 2009, the stock at 13.50 is trading at a P/E of 7.10…The conservative estimate of EPS at 97 cents for the 2nd half of 2009, the 89 cents for the first 6 months of 2009 is only part of the forest to size up…These estimates include outsourcing to get installation of their waste treatment products that the government has already announced they are backing as the # 1 leader in the Steel sector desulpher equipment and a new capacity coming in 2010 as well…Plus oil sludge product revenue’s will come in later this year..This is a real under promise and over deliver picture in my opinion the company is forecasting…

The $1.87 in net income confirming valuations at 13.50 a share (its current price) makes a conservative trailing P/E of 7.1..But reading the forest –its highly probable with added products like the oil sludge products–2010 looks like 4 to 5 times P/E at this current price and current market cap of 338 million..There is a potential estimate based on many variable measures that I have heard from an institutional company but its only a projection –so dont count on it as solid ..That institutional investment company thinks that this company at 338 million market cap could grow one day to a 15 (US) billion dollar company ..This is not 100% confirmed by my sources conclusively yet as we are still in process of getting in touch with RINO’s new CFO Jenny Liu ourselves on such a lofty projection. …But a well-renowned institutional company who has had many interviews with the company’s directors and been in the plant thinks its a possibility ..I will say this myself–most investor’s get it wrong in our opinion where they think RINO’S revenue from desulferization systems and accessories will dry up next year since they make up to 75% in current revenues..This is a very wrong perception and couldnt be further from the truth..RINO has massive repeat revenue sources surrounding their desulferization business…The other important reading of a giant forest is RINO’s sludge treatment equipment slated for commercial use in the next couple of months that will make revenues massive to its already giant revenues…An average P/E of 15 and the stock could be traded as double-higher,a conservative figure of 27.90 can be ascertained..When outsourcing stops and the oil sludge begins,then a higher price PPS than 27.90 can be expected as institutions are chop-licking on this..This stock will trade up for the future and not on that mistep 2nd quarter due to outsourcing that caused cost of capital to rise that quarter…RINO in our opinion is the real deal…

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Next,we focus on CAGC.OB..China Agritech..It is trading as of this writing after hours on 8/27/09 at 2.89 a share..They have already a 150,000 metric ton fertilizer capacity of organic fertilizer that increased revenues by 56.9% in the 2nd quarter over the 2008 2nd quarter almost all of it due to the new production facilities at Anhui province in eastern China and Harbin in northern China that started operations in the 2nd quarter of 2009….The third production facility should be completed by the end of 2009…The Chinese government projected that raw material prices are gradually declining…This should bring in higher profits on its anticipated revenues in the future..They have no long term debt and 66.5 million in net working capital and accounts receivables at 43.7 million and cash is 16.5 million..The company has announced they are staying on top of operating cash flows..The first 6 months of this year generated over 8 million in positive operating cash flow as opposed to a negative figure in the first 6 months of 2008..They have implemented a penalty policy to their sales staff with collection responsibility,contraction of new accounts receivables to 6 months instead of 12 months,more strict credit check passing criteria as well…They established these new collection policies in the first quarter & started implementing them in the 2nd quarter..They expect to produce good results in the 4th quarter and 2010 from account receivables management program..Their bad debt decreased by .5% in the 2nd quarter when they just implemented these new policies..They can focus on the extending their operating cash flows to the now established good paying customers…They plan to come out with more higher margin products in the future to balance the mix of low margin organic fertilizer…The company is projecting 20,000 metric tons of organic fertilizers in the 3rd quarter of 2009..They have full confidence of exceeded net revenue for the year of approximately 60 million & net revenue attributable to common shareholders of 9.5 million will be exceeded…Here’s how I look at it–150,000 metric tons with government backing in a land that is scarce for farming over population demands cause a great rise in share price if this company manages receivables and delivers more higher margin products which they have indicated on doing both..Expect a PPS rise that should comfort existing and near future shareholders future income appreciation from the stock in my opinion & maybe within 6 months,a delivery to AMEX listing…

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Last a power company in China….CPQQ.OB..China Power Equipment Inc..This company fits right on in with the government’s demand for clean energy and saving of energy..They have a patented and proprietary technology of producing energy saving transformers and transformers cores..They have 55 different models of transformers in 4 product series in China..This centers around transferring an electrical energy from one circuit to another by use of inductively coupled inductors or the transformers coils..Net revenues for the first 6 months in 2009 rose 88% over the 6 months of the first 6 months of 2008..Net income nearly doubled from .06 a share to .11 cents a share..Net income for the 2nd quarter was 1.3 million, .09 cents as compared to 310,746 or .02 per share for 2nd quarter in 2008..The company expects to grow on the strong foundation of government agencies and regional utilities as they continue to expand China’s power grid infrastructure…I have high expectation for massive returns on this company in my opinion…

So after looking at such companies..I ask you this: Are you a tree reader or a forest reader?..Trying to guess Wall Street’s psychology of the short term trading swings only to possibly get tripped up in that guesswork and constantly looking at the streamer impeding other possibilities of income? Or are you a forest reader?..Seeing that a more predictable future of a possible great forest that sometimes is forgotten by the traders that keep watching too close at the trees at the edge of the forest instead of seeing data that can tell you possibly this is a great forest that is undervalued…Go ahead, try to look at the trading activity like the direction of ants migrating up and down and sideways on one or two trees..Then realize sometimes you watched the trees too closely forgetting about the whole forest…

Both Mike Marsh and his brother Rob Marsh currently own shares of CAGC.OB as of this writing.. Mike also cur
rently owns shares of CPQQ.OB and RINO as well……Please do your own independent research before you make an investment purchase..See our disclaimer.

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By Mike Marsh

Based on Warren Buffet, one should not over analyze things. In his experience of observing stocks and in his own investment experiences,usually 3-4 variables at the max count and that is about it. Everything else is Wall Street noise per Marty Whitman.If the figures look right and the company’s management knows how to run the company for the benefit of its shareholders, a 60 page report on the company is not needed..

You are not rewarded like a gymnast performing a difficult level of a series of flips..One’s right analysis that was dependant mostly on one single key factor of a stock would be the same payoff as a stock that was appropriately and correctly analyzed relying on many variables..Getting bogged down over analyzing stocks in his experience can actually force you into making mistakes…

You are not going to get called on strikes if you dont execute a buy on a stock..Money managers though have that audience or fans behind them constantly telling them to swing..You as an investor should understand you dont get called out on strikes and dont have to swing at everything your way..You wont get called on strikes so wait for your pitch.

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By Mike Marsh
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Here’s what I mean per Peter Lynch about cyclibles..You see where a company produces still good growth in an earnings report but haver lower margins YOY–Wall Street will bring estimates down and you wait till the stock trades down..Wall Street will establish margins down over last year and lower earnings estimates in the future..Then you cherry pick the stock knowing commodity prices being on the low-end will rise–so you buy..

He stated if its a good fundamental stock and a low P/E stock (low P/E low and low top end PE range)..You would buy at its top end P/E range…Buy after depressed prices after seeing margins are decreasing (it was due to seasonally low pork prices)..Then you buy the stock on a downtrend of price..Then since estimates are reduced by Wall Street hold through a few earnings as Pork prices invariably rise and the company will then hopefully smash earnings as pork prices rise..Lynch states many buyers of cyclibles buy when margins have expanded greatly–stated those investors were late in the game on historically higher commodity prices (hence,in this case,pork)..Then the investor gets burned by doing what is usually normal buying at the low P/E range than the higher one…stock tips

By David C Wilson

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Online stock market investing has skyrocketed over the last few decades. No longer are the days when you need to call your broker and hold to make your trades. Technology has benefited us in such a way that the simple investment of a computer enables us to take full control over our finances and ultimately our life. There are a large amount of online brokerage platforms for you to choose from and the choice is yours. No one is more concerned or interested as you when it comes to taking care of yourself and your loved ones.

There are various aspects of investing and it will be beneficial for you to consider as many as possible before you make your final decision on your investment strategy. We will briefly examine three of them here. Keep in mind that you will want to make sure that your expectations are reasonable about the market and how you are able to perform in the market.

One very important aspect of trading that is often overlooked is the emotional aspect. The ups and down of the market can have you on an emotional rollercoaster. This can cause even the most experienced investor to take huge losses. In my experience it has benefited me to keep a trading journal of how I felt when I bought or sold a security. Was I nervous? Confident? were there other factors in my life that caused me to make a knee jerk reaction? After following the market and reviewing your journal you are likely to find that you made poor decisions when you felt unstable.

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The technical aspect of trading is very popular and involves the study of charts, trends, formula and statistics to decide which securities to choose. This method is also used to determine when to enter and exit a position.

The fundamental aspect of trading is implemented when the investor’s research primarily include the history and the strength of the security. Fundamentalists consider, among other things, the strength of the balance sheet, income statements and the company’s earnings potential.

It will benefit the individual investor to combine these methods and carefully consider each transaction. For example, an online investor may want to choose a stock based on fundamentals and decide when to enter and exit securities based on the technicals. Other online investors use technical to choose industries and narrow their lists of stocks and finalize the decision with the fundamentals. And let’s not forget about emotions. Do not enter and exit out of anxiety. Have a clear plan when you enter and exit so as not to wipe out your investment base. The most important thing to remember is that you are patient and stick with your strategy and trust yourself. There is no exact science to the organized chaos of trading. Knowledge is a key contributor. Know the technicals, know the fundamentals, recognize the trends and know yourself.

If you’re looking to buy stocks online, you’re reading the right article. If you want to learn more, why not find out more about investing with index funds and other great investing tips.

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By Bill Flekenstein
MSN Money Central

Recently I have been struck by the number of talking heads declaring that the housing market or economy has bottomed, along with their expectation of what comes next — i.e., the recent Newsweek Magazine cover: “The Recession Is Over. Good luck surviving the recovery.”

To state the obvious, the reason there’s always such an intense focus on the “bottom” is because of the implication of what comes next: better times.

I think that in most people’s minds, it is assumed that after something bottoms out, the recovery will be rather strong, if not V-shaped. Not necessarily.

Throw out the rule book for this recovery
The economy stopped getting worse sometime during the first quarter. It has benefited from massive amounts of money printing, inventory restocking and better business prospects in Asia. But I think the most important point for folks to understand is that it’s not business as usual.

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The United States is going through something unprecedented: The collapsed credit/real estate bubble (which followed the collapse of a stock bubble), and the attendant economic consequences (not the least of which has been the distinct inability to create jobs on the heels of a brutal bloodletting), have prompted a massive outpouring of quantitative easing.

Of course, further complicating the handicapping of future economic activity is that the once-radical view that unemployment is intractable has now become mainstream, almost ensuring some unforeseen wrinkle.

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More from MSN Money
Do Intel’s numbers spell recovery?
Why this recession feels so bad
The difficulties of creating jobs
Why you won’t like the recovery
What’s next: Inflation or deflation?

None of this was surprising. Given what occurred in the credit bubble, many of us expected just such a horrendous economic period. But that has been fought with (also predictable) money printing on the part of the Fed and other central banks, which is what’s called quantitative easing.

So what rages today is the battle between two epic forces: the credit collapse and money printing. The battle has many ramifications. For the financial markets, the quantitative easing and a few less-bad-than-expected economic developments have helped produce the rallies just described. But that does not necessarily mean that a much better economy and job creation lie dead-ahead.

And, after all, we haven’t even begun to deal with the implications of the funding crisis I’ve discussed more than once.

Thus, I would urge folks to be slower to leap to conclusions and more open-minded about the potential economic and financial road map, keeping in mind the forces at work in the background. Their ramifications will be with us for quite some time.

If I had to give one side of the battle the upper hand, I’d give it to money printing, as I have with my investments.

An SEC (belatedly) full of fire and brimstone
Regular readers know that selling stocks short has been part of my investment strategy. Which brings me to the “new” Securities and Exchange Commission rules.

Essentially, these are the rules it introduced last fall aimed at continuing a crackdown on naked short selling. (Until then, the SEC had never bothered to enforce the rules regarding this illegal practice. Sound familiar?)

To which I say: better late than never.

Video on MSN Money
Get ready for the (slow) recovery

There are signs the recession may end in coming months, but the U.S. economy’s recovery is likely to be so painfully slow that many won’t feel the difference. David Wessel reports.

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However, I would like to voice my objection to the innuendo that somehow short-sellers drive prices lower. Lower share prices are a function of the business, the economy, bad luck and/or mismanagement — not short-sellers. What short-sellers often do is to warn of impending problems. How many in government, corporate America or the media at large do that? It’s time to place blame where it’s due, not where it’s convenient.

Continued: ‘I do,’ says Yahoo

‘I do,’ says Yahoo
Finally, in the “recovering short-seller” department (for folks who don’t know, I closed my 13-year-old short-only hedge fund in March):

A few weeks ago, I disclosed the expansion of my long position in Microsoft (MSFT, news, msgs) — see my column from July 20, as well as the one from March 16 — because the company offered too much promise versus its valuation to keep my stake at its modest level. (Microsoft publishes MSN Money.)

Last Wednesday, indeed, suggested the potential of more good things to come, as it appears that Microsoft finally managed to do a deal with Yahoo (YHOO, news, msgs) without dramatically overpaying.

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How well this will turn out down the road remains to be seen. But it’s a far cry better than the proposed $40 billion takeover of the entire beast that is Yahoo. (Lord knows what Steve Ballmer was thinking when he proposed that deal; shareholders can just be thankful that it never happened.)

In any case, Mr. Market may have cast a small vote of confidence last Wednesday, when Microsoft finished slightly positive on a down day.

At the time of publication, Bill Fleckenstein owned shares of the following company mentioned in this column: Microsoft.

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By Kiplinger’s Personal Finance Magazine

After many dark months, investors’ appetite for risk is back, prompting a buying binge that is driving up the value of some pretty speculative stocks and asset classes.

You can play the momentum game, hoping to enter and exit a hot stock at just the right juncture. Or you can ignore the siren song of quick but highly uncertain gains and instead invest for the long term, using the tried-and-true technique of identifying companies that regularly raise their dividends.

History is on the side of the dividend strategy. Howard Silverblatt, of Standard & Poor’s, calculates that from 1926 through March 2009, reinvested dividends accounted for 44% of the 9.5% annualized return of the S&P 500-stock index ($INX). From 1972 through April 2009, dividend growers returned 8.7% annualized, according to Ned Davis Research, compared with 6.2% for the S&P 500 and just 0.7% for stocks that paid no dividends.

Why has a dividend-growth strategy stood the test of time? First, to commit to boosting its payout, a company must be financially strong and confident that its business plan will generate a stream of profit and cash flow. A growing payout, says Judy Saryan, the manager of Eaton Vance Dividend Builder fund (EVTMX), is the “best, most tangible signal that a company’s board of directors and management have confidence in future cash flows.”

Saryan notes some subtle effects of managers’ commitment to boost the

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By Robert Marsh

Stock investments and stock picking can be a tricky thing to do. When analyzing which stocks are the best to invest in, be sure to look at the EPS. It stands for Earnings per Share. And it is the part of a Company’s profits allocated to each share of outstanding stock.

It is calculated as: Net Income divided by Number of Outstanding Shares of Stock.

As you are calculating the EPS, it’s more accurate to proceed with the weighted average number of outstanding shares over a period of time. The reason is because the number of outstanding shares can vary over any given period of time.

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EPS is a very important figure that all investors should understand and calculate when trying to find stock investments and the top stocks to invest in. It is important to know what exactly to look for when you find the EPS for a certain stock. A good blue print to go by is to go back in time and look at the previous year EPS for the Company and see how it compares to the current year EPS. If there has been a 20% increase in EPS from year to year then it might just be a good candidate to invest in.

Also, an important aspect of EPS that many consistently ignore is the capital that is necessary to be able generate the net profit in the calculation. Sometimes two companies will generate the exact same EPS number. But one of these companies could pull it with less equity or investment. Consequently, this Company would more efficient in how its Capital is utilized to generate income. And it may just be a better Company to invest in.

Also, investors need to realize that Earnings can be manipulated and exaggerated by tricky accounting. This would distort the actual EPS and make a Company look better than it really is.

So be careful and patient when participating in stock investments and stock picking !!

Robert Marsh owns a Site where he provides the top stocks to choose from and stock tips for the beginning investor as well as the experienced one!
Also visit his other money site where he shows you how make free money with the best money making ideas on the Net!

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By Robert Marsh

With all the financial companies going belly up and the housing Market in a slump, it is a challenge to get any kind of positive rate of return with good stocks!

Here are the 5 crucial characteristics a Company must have to be able to make a rate of return of 20% or more each and every year if you invest in it..

1. ROIC- Return on investment capital is simply the rate of return a company makes on the cash it plows and invests in itself each and every year. It should be above 10% per year for the last 10 years.

2. Sales - A Company’s Sales is the amount of dollars they bring in from the sell of their Products. You want to look at the last 5 years and see a continuing growth in sales each year.

3 EPS- This stands for Earnings Per Share. It is a very important figure of the Company and its operations. It takes the complete earnings of a company and divides it by the number of outstanding shares. You want this figure to be high. It means that each share is generating a very good amount of profit!

4. Equity – This figure is the amount a Company would be left with if it sold off everything, paid off all debts, and took the money that was left! Of course, the higher this is the healthier and more attractive the Company is to invest in.

5. Cash Growth – This figure allows potential investors to know if a company’s profits are aligned with making hard, cold cash. Profits are great on paper. But cash growth tells what the company is worth in accurate dollar amounts! The higher, the better.

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I hope these stock tips give you some insight in to what makes a company a potentially good investment. Remember, always be selective and do your research before investing in any good stocks.

Robert Marsh owns a site where he provides the top hot stocks and stock tips for the beginning investor as well as the experienced one!
Also visit his other site where he shows you how to make free money with the best money making opportunities on the Net !

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by Robert Marsh

The World today is so unpredictable. The Economy is up and down, and there is no such thing as a sure way to make an honest buck anymore. One of the more challenging ways to make money today is by investing in the Stock Market and finding the top stock picks. Traditionally, the Stock Market has outperformed every other major investment vehicle including Bonds and Real Estate in the last century.

Many people including financial professionals and stockbrokers will have you believe that the average person cannot and should not try to invest in Stocks without the proper advice and know how from the so called experts.

Well, investing and stock picking is not something that you should take lightly. Like anything else in Life it takes a little time and work to really have enough knowledge to invest on your own. But with some patience and education you can do it on your own. Contrary to what some will say, it is not rocket science!!

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Here are the 4 Critical Factors you MUST understand about a Company and its Stock before investing in it!!

1. Does the Business have Meaning to you? – You need to know what the business does, and be confident that you understand how it operates and how it makes money. If you do not feel comfortable with the values the company operates you may want to consider not investing in it.

2. Does the Business have a wide Moat? – You need to check and see if the Company has enough of the ‘right stuff, to defend itself from any competitors!

3. Does the Business have good Management? – This is so important to make sure the Leaders of the Company have a solid vision and healthy business plan!!

4. Does the Business have a distinct Margin of Safety? – This means that you better be able to buy the company cheap. And buy it at such a bargain if something happens adversely to it, you still will come out ahead !!

Choosing the right Stock and finding the top stock picks can be downright difficult and sometimes risky. But these 4 characteristics above will give you a solid foundation to work from when choosing the successful company to invest in!

Robert Marsh owns a Site where he provides top stock picks and stock tips for the beginning investor as well as the experienced one!
Also visit his other site where he shows you how to earn money with the best money making ideas on the Net!

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By Mike Marsh

We have been hearing from many TV analysts lately stating we are just about half way back from the retracement level of the DOW from the March 6,2009 lows to its highs on October 9,2007 levels… Let us say this: this has been clearly overshot to the upside by analysts not remembering or knowing about percentage gains or losses…Let us briefly explain this..Any 2 base points with the same points going up or down those 2 base points–the percentage gain up will always be higher than the percentage gain down..Take a stock at 40 going down to 30..Take the base point 40-the 10 point decline you divide by the base point 40-you get a 25% decline..Right!! 10 points..Now let’s take a 30 point stock that goes up to 40..A 10 point appreciation from the base point of 30..You take 10 divided by the base point 30 =33% increase..Wait a minute..What’s going on here..You have 2 base points-a rise of 10 points and a decline of the same variable 10 points from each base points–but a 33% increase going up and a 25% increase going down for the same 10 points!!! And it doesnt matter what base points you use–always the gains going up will be more than the loss going down for the same points..A $50 stock going down to 20 is derived by this: 30 divided by 50 (the base point) is a 60% decline ..But if a $20 stock goes to 50 is an increase in percentage of 150%-30 divided by the base of 20 is 150%..Again 2 base points with the same appreciation or downward amount of 30 points going either way !!! But the upward appreciation is way more in percentage than the downward percentage loss..Its even more distorted if the point amount between 2 base points is used for retracement means..

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The Dow was 14164.53 on 10/9/07 and its low was 6443 on March 6,2009 …You can take 14164.53 minus 6443=7721.53…Lets’ see the actual halfway point based on points..7721.53 divided by 2 =3860.77..Add this amount to March 6,2009 Dow lows is 6443 is 10303.77 –the current Dow as we write this is 8497.18 on June 17,2009 closing…That’s 1806.59 away..1806.59 is 23.4% of 7721.53 (the difference of the Dow high–14164.53 and the Dow low 6443) ..Yet we hear the Dow is 40% down from October 9,2007 and up about 32 % from March 6,2009 lows..We hear we are about just 9% away from the half way mark..How about we have another 23.4% to go to the halfway point..You can clearly see this is in reality the more correct figure when you take actual points not the distorted percentage that always happens when you go either way up and down a base point..

So these TV analysts need to know this..Not by actual points are we near the midway mark in retracements…Like we stated the halfway mark is 10,303.77–23.4 % still away from that mark going up in actual points….Not just 9%…Not using the upward or downward percentage truism that distorts actual points…Again know the truism that the same points going up and down 2 base points..Or the upward points appreciation will always be more in percentage than the downward percentage loss…This only distorts the retracement of the Dow by quite a bit…We are not permabulls..We just want to point out the misunderstanding of percentage gains or losses between 2 base points…Its just too much of a difference that needs to be pointed out..Midway mark of the retracement is 10,303.77–23.4 % away not 9% away from June 17,2009 closing Dow…Write that on your refrigerator and email the TV programs this if you want..How’s that for fun…

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